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The NC Threat-Free Index and Immunity Update for the Week Ending November 8

Image source: Lots of smiling faces visible as people enjoyed the Clayton Harvest Festival in downtown Clayton, North Carolina, in Johnston County, Oct. 27–31.

This past week about 99.8% of people in NC posed no threat of passing along COVID-19 to anyone, and nearly nine out of ten (89.4%) adult North Carolinians are estimated to have either vaccine-induced or natural immunity.

Here is the NC Threat-Free Index for the week ending November 8. All of the statistics generated for the NC Threat-Free Index are based on numbers provided by government sources. This link gives a detailed explanation of how each statistic is derived.

  • As of November 8: 1,454,082 North Carolinians are presumed to be recovered from COVID-19
  • Active cases comprised just 1.5% of NC’s total case count (note: a case of COVID isn’t a permanent infection, and only someone with an active case of the virus can conceivably transmit it to you)
  • Active cases represented just over 0.2% (two-tenths of one percent) of NC’s population (note: active cases are lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 minus recoveries and deaths)
  • Also, 36 out of every 37 (97.3%) of NC’s total cases were recovered, meaning they are (a) no longer infectious, (b) have acquired persistent, longlasting, and robust natural immunity to Covid-19, and (c) have stronger immunity against Covid-19 and its variants than even those who are fully vaccinated
  • Only 0.17% of people in NC had died with COVID-19 (regardless of the actual cause of death and amid research findings as well as admissions from DHHS and the CDC that a significant proportion of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths were “not related to COVID-19”)
  • All things considered, nearly 99.8% of people in NC posed no threat of passing along COVID-19 to anyone (note: this proportion will fluctuate based on relative growth in lab-confirmed cases vs. recoveries, and it is likely understated because it does not account for vaccinations)

Herd immunity, reinfections, and post-vaccination infections

For the week ending November 8:

  • Now nearly nine out of ten (89.4%) adult North Carolinians are estimated to have some immunity, whether vaccine-induced immunity or natural immunity, the stronger and more durable immunity, to Covid-19 (note: this estimate uses DHHS case numbers, CDC estimates of actual infections, DHHS estimates of current vaccinations, and the formula outlined here)
  • Furthermore, including vaccinated and naturally immune children (18 and under) into the mix, the total population of North Carolina is at 82.9% immunity
  • As of November 8, there had been 12,293 reinfections for those with prior lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19, and the estimated reinfection rate was just over 0.8% (note: for reasons discussed here, the actual reinfection rate is likely much lower than the estimated rate)
  • As of October 23, per the most recent update from DHHS, there had been 91,047 post-vaccination infections, and the estimated post-vaccination infection rate was nearly 1.7% (note: given how strictly DHHS defines a “post-vaccination infection” — someone must be at least two weeks past receiving the second of two injections; anyone with only one injection or within two weeks of receiving the second “counts” as an unvaccinated case of Covid — the actual post-vaccination infection rate could be much higher than the estimated rate)
  • Also as of October 23, 22% of Covid-19 cases in North Carolina were to people considered fully vaccinated
  • As of November 8, only just over one in ten (10.6%) North Carolinians were estimated to have neither vaccine-induced nor natural immunity

Jon Sanders / Research Editor and Senior Fellow, Regulatory Studies

Jon Sanders studies regulatory policy, a veritable kudzu of invasive government and unintended consequences. As director of regulatory studies at the John Locke Foundation, Jo...