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Some early lessons from the 2020 election

Editors at Issues and Insights already glean some valuable lessons from the still-inconclusive 2020 election contest.

The polls were wildly wrong, again. We wrote in this space a while ago that the so-called shy Trump voters were real and that they could have a big impact on the election. Whoever wins, we were right about that. President Donald Trump outperformed the polls across the country.

Mail-in voting was a disaster. Throughout the election, there were accounts of lost ballots, delays, postal workers dumping mail. And now we are waiting for mail-in ballots to get counted in three states that could decide the election. The problem with mail-in ballots isn’t just that it opens the door to fraud, but that it adds a needless level of uncertainty to elections.

Dems’ hopes of a socialist takeover appear to be dashed. Even if Joe Biden wins, it’s increasingly likely that Republicans will retain control of the Senate, and will be able to block his economically ruinous tax hikes, Green New Deal plans, and his Medicare-for-All on the installment plan. The one area where Biden could still cause real problems is in executive orders. He would undo all the progress Trump has made via that route, just as Trump undid Obama’s overuse of executive orders.

“Racist” Trump made real inroads with minorities. The Florida results were striking not only because Trump was predicted by most pollsters to lose that state, but because his big margin of victory came from a big gain in Hispanic votes. Democrats have treated Hispanics as though they were eternally bound to their welfare state programs and identity politics. We hope this is the start of a trend where minorities come to realize that they have more to lose than anyone from the socialist impulses of Democrats. We haven’t seen reporting on Trump’s support among blacks yet, but we wouldn’t be surprised if he made gains there as well.

Mitch Kokai / Senior Political Analyst

Mitch Kokai is senior political analyst for the John Locke Foundation. He joined JLF in December 2005 as director of communications. That followed more than four years as chie...

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