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Anybody’s Game: NC’s Elections Are Tight

As North Carolina continues an election cycle, it is becoming more and more clear just how competitive the 2020 races are in the state. According to the latest polling from the Civitas Institute, Joe Biden holds only a slim margin over President Donald Trump. Carolina Journal reports:

A Civitas Poll survey released Thursday, Oct. 29, shows Democrat Biden with 47% of the vote, a one-point lead over Republican Trump… Thursday’s Real Clear Politics poll average coincides with the Civitas findings, showing Biden with roughly a one-point lead in North Carolina, well within the margin of error…

“The race for the White House runs through the Old North State, and we’re still deadlocked here with Biden and Trump flip-flopping one-point leads since August,” said Civitas Institute President Donald Bryson. “Unaffiliated voters and seniors have made shifts towards Biden, while conservatives and blue-collar voters have consolidated behind President Trump, which has led to fewer undecideds in a still tight race.”

But the presidential race is not the only highly competitive race in the state. In his research brief this week, Dr. Terry Stoops writes, despite Democratic candidate Jen Mangrum’s sizable advantage in campaign funds, the state superintendent race between Mangrum and Republican Catherine Truitt is remarkably close. Dr. Stoops writes:

Mangrum maintained a 6-to-1 fundraising advantage thanks to hefty contributions from the North Carolina Democratic Party, Lillian’s List, and the NCAE PAC…

In October, Mangrum had a 45% to 42% advantage over Truitt with 13% still undecided.1 Despite Mangrum’s small lead in the October poll, it is within the margin of error. In other words, it’s anyone’s ballgame.

With less than a week left before election day, there is not much longer to speculate. However, North Carolinians might have to wait longer than usual this year to find out who the winners of our elections are, as the number of mail-in ballots that will need to be tallied is much higher than in any previous year.

Read Carolina Journal’s coverage of the Civitas poll here. Read Dr. Stoops’ brief on the NC Superintendent race here.

Brenee Goforth / Communications Associate