Jonathan Williams of the American Legislative Exchange Council considers the link between American migration patterns and state tax policies. He summarizes his analysis for TheHill.com.
With the 2020 census just around the corner, elected officials and demographers eagerly await the results from this once in a decade process of counting the U.S. population. The new count will not affect electoral votes for the 2020 presidential election. But its implications for the 2022 congressional midterms, state political clout and future presidential elections are significant. …
… Americans continue to move, or “vote with their feet,” toward states that have lower tax burdens and value economic competitiveness. For more than a decade, our work in Rich States, Poor States has revealed that states with lower taxes, especially those that avoid personal income taxes, have seen significantly better rates of in-migration than states with high income tax rates.
For example, the two biggest winners from the 2019 population estimates are Texas, which gained 367,215 new residents on net, and Florida, which gained 233,420. Neither the Lone Star State nor the Sunshine State have a personal income tax. The two states with the largest population losses in 2019 were New York, with a net loss of 76,790 residents and Illinois, which lost 51,250. New York and Illinois have some of the highest tax burdens in America, and their policy mistakes are costing them dearly. …
… The big winners in terms of congressional seats include growth states Texas, which is slated to gain three seats (from 36 to 39) and Florida, which is set to gain two seats (from 27 to 29). Other states that are likely to gain a seat include; Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10), Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8), Montana +1 (from 1 to 2), North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14), and Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6). [Emphasis added.]
