Timothy Carney of the Washington Examiner rejects much conventional wisdom about Democratic primary voters and caucus participants.
Political journalists and commentators always put too much emphasis on policy and ideology. Often, that’s the only way they know how to speak about politics. But it leads us to misunderstanding the political landscape.
In the current Democratic presidential race, the main misperception is that there are two “lanes”: a moderate lane and a progressive lane. This leads analysts to assume that if Elizabeth Warren drops out, her supporters go to Bernie Sanders, because both are on the Left. …
… But regular voters aren’t as policy-focused and as ideological as we Beltway denizens assume. Identity politics and class allegiance often matters much more than Medicare policy. …
… Look at the numbers, and you’ll see it’s true.
According to New Hampshire exit polls, among union households, the top two candidates were Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Warren bombed among those with no college degree (6%), whereas Sanders dominated in that group.
Go back to when Warren was the frontrunner in Iowa, she was dominating among the college-educated crowd. She lost Iowa, because that crowd moved to Buttigieg.
About half of Warren’s Iowa supporters this year were Hillary supporters four years ago, suggesting that what they like is white Baby Boomer women. Early New Hampshire numbers suggest Warren lost a lot of support to Klobuchar, the most moderate of the remaining candidates, but also a white woman.
So if Biden drops out, much of his working-class support will go to Sanders. If Warren quits, her college-educated supporters will go to Buttigieg and Klobuchar. The lanes aren’t ideological.
