Ramesh Ponnuru explains at National Review Online why he believes the Trump administration’s trade deal with Mexico and Canada is just OK.
President Trump could be on the verge of his biggest bipartisan accomplishment — right in the middle of an impeachment inquiry and, even more oddly, partly because of it. This triumph would be the passage of a slightly modified version of what he has called “perhaps the worst trade deal ever made.”
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was a populist whipping boy even before its 1993 enactment. …
… There are a few changes. The most universally lauded are the ones concerning digital trade. It hardly existed when NAFTA was written, so the agreement had to be modernized to cover it. …
… Americans with varying views on free trade and protectionism have also applauded another provision of the agreement. Canada will allow slightly more dairy imports from the U.S. The issue has long troubled relations between the countries. It will continue to do so, but the USMCA makes some progress. …
… The International Trade Commission, part of the U.S. government, has estimated that the agreement would expand our economy by 0.35 percent and increase employment by 0.12 percent. In its analysis, the provisions borrowed from the TPP would have a positive effect. The provisions concerning cars would, on the other hand, raise prices, cut sales, and reduce employment in auto assembly. …
… Free-traders have split about whether the USMCA is a net improvement over NAFTA; different opinions have been expressed even within one libertarian think tank, the Cato Institute. The business groups that tend to back trade agreements have been supportive — but much of that support is based on the fear that if the USMCA doesn’t pass, Trump will make good on his occasional threats to withdraw from NAFTA.
