Will Rierson writes for the Martin Center about the University of North Carolina’s NC Promise program.

Concerned about the high cost of college, the University of North Carolina system is testing a low-tuition model at some schools to drive up enrollments. Though the experiment only started last fall, some preliminary observations can be made. …

… The $51 million plan reduces in-state tuition for undergraduates at participating UNC system schools to just $500 per semester and out-of-state tuition to $2,500 per semester. Room, board, and other expenses remain the same, but students still save thousands of dollars each year. The state also launched a program promising that tuition will not increase for students during four years of continuous enrollment within the UNC system. The system is required to solicit feedback from participating schools. …

… NC Promise was launched in 2018 at Western Carolina University, UNC-Pembroke, and Elizabeth City State University, which represent three geographic regions and groups. …

… Low-cost tuition seems to be pushing students to those schools; no other school experienced enrollment growth above 3 percent. …

… Beyond tuition savings, other benefits have come about from NC Promise. UNCP’s increase in enrollment meant nearly 900 new students, and it also improved standardized testing scores and freshman retention went up by five percent. Whether this increase in student academic quality can be sustained or repeated at other schools remains to be seen, but it should be noted by policymakers in evaluating NC Promise’s success.

But enrollment growth may come from a small crowding-out effect. Three nearby UNC schools had drops in enrollment. UNC-Asheville was the hardest hit, losing slightly more than two percent compared to a year before, and East Carolina University and UNC Wilmington both shrunk by less than one percent. Those schools are roughly in the same regions as the NC Promise participants, with UNCA fewer than 60 miles from WCU, but proximity cannot be pinpointed as the cause for falling enrollment.