Governing magazine’s Liz Farmer finds economists are increasingly worried about the possibility of a recession. She writes that S&P sees slower growth as a more likely scenario than outright contraction, but budget timelines are not as simple. Agencies have already begun planning their budgets through June 2021—the governor will release his budget proposal by March and the legislature will have their budget bill ready by May.
“Even if the worst were to happen, it’s unlikely we will have a full-blown recession for at least another year and a half,” says Moody’s Analytics economist Dan White. But given that states budget one and two years out, “now’s the time to make sure you’re in a good position when that time hits.”