Syndicated columnist John Hood looks at two recent polls of North Carolinians that lead to different conclusions about the November midterms. On one hand:
If the latest Harper Polling survey commissioned by the conservative Civitas Instituteproves to be an accurate forecast of voter sentiment by Election Day, North Carolina Democrats would likely break one or both Republican supermajorities in the General Assembly (and perhaps even win control of a chamber) while gaining two to three North Carolina seats in the U.S. House, adding another Democratic justice to the state supreme court, and winning a number of other judicial and local races around the state.
Taken September 7 through September 13, the High Point survey sampled 827 adults in North Carolina, including 734 who identified themselves as registered voters and 511 who said they were “almost certain to vote.” On generic-ballot questions for Congress and legislature, the divide in partisan preference among the relevant subgroups — registered voters and most-likely voters — was either a tie or a statistically insignificant 1-point Democratic edge, depending on the electoral contest.
In other words, at this point it’s anyone’s guess. As is always the case, who turns out will determine the fate of the candidates.