In addition to Jon Guze’s excellent analysis of the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent oral arguments in the Colorado case involving a cake designer and same-sex marriage, you might want to read an assessment from Federalist columnist Margot Cleveland. Focusing on many of the same points Jon emphasizes, Cleveland predicts a likely outcome.

If Tuesday’s oral argument is any indication, the year-long anticipation for the Masterpiece Cakeshop Supreme Court showdown will result in a narrow opinion that provides little clarity in the continuing conflict between culture and religious liberty. …

… What did concern Kennedy was evidence that the Colorado Commission on Civil Rights held an anti-religion animus. Here, the swing justice cited one commissioner’s comment that “freedom of religion used to justify discrimination is a despicable piece of rhetoric.” Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Neil Gorsuch added their voices to this criticism, with Gorsuch casting comments from a second commissioner as anti-religion. …

… the Supreme Court later clarified in Church of the Lukumi Babalu Aye v. City of Hialeah, a law is not neutral “if the object of a law is to infringe upon or restrict practices because of their religious motivation.” The court added: “There are, of course, many ways of demonstrating that the object or purpose of a law is the suppression of religion or religious conduct…Official action that targets religious conduct for distinctive treatment cannot be shielded by mere compliance with the requirement of facial neutrality. The Free Exercise Clause protects against governmental hostility which is masked, as well as overt.”

The author of Lukumi Babalu? Justice Kennedy. …

… Here, then, is the compromise, the baby-halved: the court rules in favor of Masterpiece Cakeshop, but not based on broad principles of religious liberty. Rather, the court concludes that Colorado’s commission acted with hostility toward Phillips’ religious beliefs. …