From Harry Enten at fivethirtyeight.com.
Hillary Clinton continues to hold a small lead in FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting models. She has about a 59 percent chance of winning the election according to both our polls-only and polls-plus forecasts. The most notable new polls released since Friday came in Pennsylvania and Florida, both crucial swing states. Clinton led by 8 percentage points in a Muhlenberg College poll from Pennsylvania and by 1 percentage point in a Siena College poll out of Florida.
How crucial are Pennsylvania and Florida? They’re more crucial than all the other states. But they’re still not that crucial. You often hear that some battleground state is absolutely key for Clinton or a must-win for Donald Trump, but really no single state is that pivotal. The map is pretty fluid.
FiveThirtyEight currently projects Hillary Climton’s chances of winning the presidency at 91 percent if she carries North Carolina but only 34 percent if she loses North Carolina. The odds are exactly reversed for Donald Trump: He is estimated to have only a 9 percent of winning nationally if he losses North Carolina and a 66 percent chance if he wins the state.
