JLF’s Becki Gray weighs in today on the midterm election, what’s at stake in terms of legislative action and policy decisions, and what the results could signal.
I believe if Republicans lose no more than eight seats in the House and four in the Senate, they can consider it a green light from voters to continue their momentum.
If Republicans lose their veto-proof majority in either chamber, McCrory will gain negotiating power with the General Assembly. The governor has largely gotten much of what he wants, but there have been some differences.
Without a veto-proof majority, McCrory will become an even bigger player when there’s an impasse. His policies, priorities, and approach to reforms will gain importance.
This referendum on General Assembly policies also will have a huge influence on the selection of the next speaker of the House. Will the caucus choose a leader to continue an aggressive reform agenda, one committed to maintaining the momentum, or someone who wants to let the dust settle a bit?
The direction of the General Assembly depends not only on numbers but also on the ideology of its members. Depending on the election’s outcome, the body could become more conservative, especially if the Republicans pick up new seats. It is less likely it will become more liberal. If the Democratic caucus becomes more conservative, it increases the likelihood of bipartisanship and could pull the body more to the middle.
Tuesday night will be consequential in many ways, most importantly, in which direction the state will head.
