We’ve heard a lot about teachers who are leaving North Carolina public schools to teach in another state.  The reasons behind their decision to exit vary considerably.  Liberals want the public to believe that policies instituted by Republican lawmakers are to blame.  In some cases, the cumulative effect on statewide policy decisions may contribute to a teacher’s decision to leave the state for greener pastures elsewhere, but it would be foolish to make that assumption without empirical evidence to substantiate it.

One left-wing advocacy organization is peddling the story of a teacher who is so fed up, that he is leaving North Carolina to find a teaching job in Ohio. After all, Ohio is the land of milk and honey.  Teachers are rolling in the dough in states like Ohio.  Don’t get me wrong, I truly wish him and his family the best.  I sincerely hope that he is able to find a teaching job in Ohio.  But the odds are stacked against him.

States in the northeast and along the Rust Belt have a glut of teachers.  For example, the National Council on Teacher Quality estimated that New York produces nearly three teachers for each vacant teaching position.  Public school teaching jobs are harder and harder to come by in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York because the population is declining (or aging), the local tax base cannot support extravagant spending on public schools, and turnover is limited.   As long as supply continues to outstrip demand, growing school districts in North Carolina will continue to recruit teachers from these states.

It is even more difficult for out-of-staters to find a public school teaching job in northern and midwestern states.

I examined Title II reports to find the percentage of teachers who received initial certification or licensure in one state but were trained in another.  In 2012, New York’s state education agency reported that none of their newly licensed teachers were trained in another state.  In Ohio and Pennsylvania, around 11 percent of their newly licensed teachers were trained in another state.  In New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, there are more than enough local products to fill teaching positions.  Only 1 in 10 new teachers in South Carolina received training in another state.  By comparison, a third of North Carolina’s newly licensed teachers were trained elsewhere.  Florida, Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee also have a substantial number of out-of-state teachers.

Thus, if legislators obtain empirical evidence that teachers are leaving North Carolina to teach in other states, they must be mindful that our primary competition is Florida, Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee, not Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, or even South Carolina.