Looking ahead to November, National Review‘s Jim Geraghty offers the following insight into President Obama’s re-election bid:
This year, Barack Obama will run his first contested reelection campaign since 1998, when he beat first-time Republican Yesse Yehudah, 89 percent to 11 percent, in Illinois’ 13th state-senate district. It is not an exaggeration to say that this is the first time Obama has been forced to run on his record, as opposed to a promise of utopia.
By historical standards, Obama’s record is jaw-droppingly weak. Last August, former George W. Bush strategist Mark McKinnon noticed that the average value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index under incumbent presidents who win reelection is 95.9. Under incumbents who lose, the average is 78.4. Over the past year, the index has surged 20 points — all the way to 75. And this is before the coming summer of four-dollar gas in most of the country.
If gas prices become the big issue of the summer and fall, Obama’s best shot at reelection might be a foreign crisis. Ironically, the president who campaigned on ending the war in Iraq, and who is running for reelection on withdrawal from Afghanistan, may find his odds for reelection enhanced by a conflict with Iran.
