Geoff Colvin devotes his latest Fortune column to the notion that election contests this year in Russia, France, Egypt, Mexico, Venezuela, the U.S., and South Korea will play a major role in determining the course of the global economy.
Egypt is, with luck, a nascent democracy. Russia and Venezuela are bogus democracies. The Russian election hasn’t happened as I write this, but it will have happened as you read this. Don’t worry — I know how it turned out. In Venezuela, we can be similarly confident that Hugo Chávez, like Vladimir Putin, will use his near-dictatorial powers to ensure a win, though he faces a credible opponent. The key question is what happens then. Will Russians and Venezuelans accept their leaders’ phony reelections? They’ve always done so, but that was before the past year of demonstrations and public anger. There’s at least a chance that the people of all three nations will rise up to insist on genuine democracy.
That would be the best outcome, just as the best result in the four established democracies would be moves toward moderate, low-tax, market-friendly economic policies.
