Michael Barone applies his election number-crunching expertise to a new analysis of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s strategy in this week’s Iowa caucuses:
[T]he political newcomers referred to as the Tea Party have become the most highly motivated part of the Republican party. They are opposed to the Obama Democrats’ vast expansion of the size and scope of government and to any policy that abets it.
The Republican candidates, who had their first real test in this week’s Iowa caucuses, have long political records, going back to the 1970s in the cases of Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, and all of them (or all but one) have taken stands in tension with the principles of this cycle’s Republican voters. …
… The Republican race has been described by many as the rise and fall of various conservatives as the alternative to the supposed moderate Mitt Romney. But Romney has been emphasizing Tea Party themes, invoking the Founding Fathers and contrasting Obama’s entitlement society with his merit society. …
… The entrance poll showed Romney running not far behind Paul and Santorum among the nearly two-thirds of caucus-goers who said they supported the tea-party movement, and winning about half the votes of the one-third of caucus-goers who said they wanted to support the most electable candidate. Evidently, Romney is not seen as totally unacceptable by tea-party sympathizers and has a considerable advantage on electability.
