Much of the speculation about the 2012 election focuses on President Obama’s chances for re-election, but a Newsweek profile of first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana reminds us that other prizes are up for grabs as well.
Tester is not the most powerful senator in Washington, and he’s far from the most polished. But because his rural constituency will help determine who controls Congress, and perhaps even the presidency, after 2012, he’s about to become one of the most important. When Rep. Denny Rehberg, Montana’s best-known Republican, launched his own Senate bid in February, Tester’s chances for reelection plummeted. He’s only the tip of the rural iceberg. According to Charlie Cook, the Capitol Hill handicapper, nine Senate races now qualify as “tossups.” Four will test the staying power of Democratic incumbents: Ben Nelson in Nebraska, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Joe Manchin in West Virginia, and Tester. Three will take place in states where Democrats are retiring: Virginia, New Mexico, and North Dakota. And all seven of these contests will largely be decided by people more like Jon Tester than Chuck Schumer. The math is simple: if Democrats can’t connect with small-town voters, they will lose the Senate next November—and make it difficult for President Obama, who held his own among rural Americans in 2008, to recapture states like North Carolina that put him over the top last time around.
The discussion of Democrats connecting with small-town voters reminds me of Gary Pearce‘s words of wisdom: “[L]iberals … have to understand that your candidates don’t have the luxury of the right-wingers: They can’t always say exactly what they believe — and still get elected.”
