Like him or not, Karl Rove knows something about winning presidential elections. In his latest Wall Street Journal column, Rove compares President Obama’s re-election plans to those of George W. Bush and … wait for it … Richard Nixon.

The Obama approach copies the tactical emphasis of President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election effort. …

… A metric-driven approach that relies on grass-roots volunteers will serve Mr. Obama well, especially compared to the Democrats’ 2004 campaign, which emphasized paid canvassers recruited from temp agencies and union halls. Voters know the difference between a personal appeal from a passionate volunteer and a pro-forma pitch from someone more interested in a check than a cause.

But Mr. Obama is making a mistake by following the advice of President Richard Nixon, who argued White House hopefuls must run to their party’s flank in the primary and tack back to the center for the general election. While Mr. Obama doesn’t face a primary challenge, the White House is worried about the intensity of the Democratic base and feels compelled to feed it red meat now.

This bit of conventional wisdom assumes two things. First, that ordinary voters aren’t paying attention now (they are). And second, that veering hard left in 2011 won’t limit Mr. Obama’s appeal in 2012 (it will). Many swing voters are repelled by the class-warfare rhetoric Mr. Obama uses to fire up the Democratic base. Appealing to envy is usually not a winning formula.