A new poll for two North Carolina television stations, conducted by Survey USA, shows once again why it is a mistake to issue confident predictions about the state?s Republican nomination fight for governor. The race will be a low-turnout affair in which few compelling differences have arisen. The electorate?s sentiments are fluid.
The poll shows former Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot at 35 percent, his highest mark yet in publicly available surveys. It shows Patrick Ballantine at 24 percent and Bill Cobey at 20 percent ? statistically tied and in a close battle for the chance to face Vinroot in a runoff, should it happen. If these numbers accurately depict GOP opinion, it would suggest a significant surge for Ballantine and little gain, or even a small loss, for Cobey, during the past couple of weeks.
I find two aspects particular interesting. First, the conventional wisdom is wrong regarding who supports whom. Vinroot leads among all age groups, though not by a statistically significant margin among 18-34 year-olds (he’s at 30, Ballantine at 29). Vinroot leads in the west and Charlotte. Ballantine leads in the east. Accounting for subground margins of sampling error, the three are essentially tied in the battle over the Triangle and Triad areas.
Second, the conventional wisdom is wrong about the runoff. It is not guaranteed. Perhaps Vinroot won?t get enough of the undecided vote (10 percent in this survey) to make it over 40 percent; undecideds often don?t break for the frontrunner. But remember turnout differentials: congressional primaries could somewhat boost the number of voters in western and Piedmont counties where Vinroot is doing well.
This race is far, far from over.
