Amity Shlaes‘ latest column for Forbes magazine explains why conversations about economic growth need to focus on more than just the word “jobs.”

GIVE THEM A JOB now, and they’ll stay.

That’s the assumption many states make about their younger citizens, especially states that have been losing population, like Illinois and Vermont. Local politicians take pride in the internships or starting positions they come up with, confident that a good offer will keep their young people from straying.

But 18-year-olds are wiser than their elders realize. Jobs alone won’t suffice to keep them. Young people seek something else: prospects. The distinction feels trivial, but there’s a difference between jobs and prospects. That difference is one of time. “Prospects” means long term, and long term is how many youths think.

Shlaes shares some thoughts about prospects for ambitious Vermont teens, then returns to economics.

The economist Milton Friedman, who once had a house in Vermont, labeled a phenomenon he observed as the “Permanent Income Hypothesis.” People, Friedman posited, were not rabbits. They would spend not according to what cash they had on hand but according to their estimate of what money they’d have in their lifetime. The PIH holds for decisions beyond saving. You choose a home not just because it pleases you this year but because it might prove a good investment over a lifetime.

The essays of the perspicacious Vermont teens suggest that states around the nation may want to alter their pitches. Jobs matter, but less than education. Regulation matters. Tax rates matter, even top rates—again, because of prospects. The ambitious consider what rate they’ll pay tomorrow, not the rate that applies to them as they start out.

Several observers have figured this out. Savetaxesbymoving, a website developed by the original marginal-rate cutter, Arthur Laffer, helps long-term thinkers by offering them a calculator to reckon just how much money they would lose or make over a lifetime, depending on the state in which they live. Recently Maine’s governor, Paul LePage, began mooting a tax plan that would cut rates by nearly a third. That would impress a future dentist or businesswoman.