That’s the real takeaway from a media-hyped Pew Charitable Trusts report, “Clean Economy Rising: Solar Shines in North Carolina.” My newsletter today explains.

Here’s a snippet:

There is not one page in the Pew report that does not underscore the fact that the ballyhooed “success” of solar energy in North Carolina is heavily dependent upon public policies, state and federal. They include mandated purchases via the state’s renewable energy portfolio standards (RPS), the state’s 35 percent investment tax credit, federal tax incentives, federal research grants, other financing assistance, and other incentives. …

Here is the very first sentence of the cover page overview: “North Carolina has emerged as a clean energy leader in the Southeast because of its high-caliber academic institutions, robust public and private investments, and policies such as the renewable energy and energy efficiency portfolio standard.”

The report proper opens on page 2 with a discussion of “Clean energy policies” — first things first! — from the RPS to the 35 percent investment tax credit to federal incentives. It includes a table of “Key State Policies.” …

Page 3 [states] “Solar energy’s relative success may stem from its strong resource potential in North Carolina, the rapid decline in photovoltaic panel prices nationwide, and state policies such as the renewable portfolio standard and tax incentives that encourage both utility-scale and distributed projects.”

The very next sentence underscores this definition of success as getting government rather than market support: “New solar capacity additions and investment will slow in 2016 due to the looming expiration of the federal investment tax credit.”

Page 4 illustrates how much this investment will slow: from over $1.6 billion expected this year to under $800 million in 2016, then to just over $400 million in 2017.

In other words, when the federal tax credit expires, the report predicts a 75 percent reduction in investment in solar energy in the next two years. That ought to be the news coming out of this report. Wonder what would happen if the state RPS mandate and tax incentives also expired?