Barone probes recent developments among Hispanic voters

Michael Barone‘s latest column for the Washington Examiner probes Hispanic voters’ reaction to the current campaign season.

Every party has a bad off year sometimes; Republicans did in 2006. Sooner or later they recover. But in the crosstabs of polls and in party strategists’ moves I see evidence that one group Democrats have been counting on is moving away from them: Hispanics.

Hispanics voted 71 percent for Barack Obama in 2012, 20 points above his national average of 51 percent. According to Gallup, Hispanics’ latest Obama job approval has sunk to 44 percent, just 3 points above the national average.

You probably haven’t heard much about this because Hispanics are scarce in all but one of the states with serious Senate races this year.

The one exception is Colorado, where the 2012 exit poll said 14 percent of voters were Hispanic. Non-Hispanic whites there voted 54 to 44 percent for Mitt Romney. But Hispanics voted 75 to 23 percent for Barack Obama, providing all of his popular vote margin and more.

In the last decade liberals have surged to victories in all top-of-the-ticket races in a state that once seemed safely Republican. This year that chain may well be broken. Incumbent Sen. Mark Udall trails Republican Rep. Cory Gardner in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls and is at 44 percent, well below 50. Incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper leads former Rep. Bob Beauprez by only 0.4 percent.

Looking at poll crosstabs where available, I find that neither Democrat is close to Obama’s 75 percent and both Republicans are running at or above Romney’s level. One poll even has the Hispanic vote evenly split. …

… Historically, the Democratic party has been a collection of out-groups who, when gathered together, make up a majority of the nation.

But each out-group has different interests and priorities. Holding them together is difficult. The Obama Democrats have treated Hispanics as a passive and reliable source of votes. They have not delivered on issues Hispanics care about and instead have advanced the pet causes of gentry liberals. The evidence from Colorado, California and Texas suggests Hispanics may be noticing.