Dispatches from the campaign trail, August 18, 2014

• The U.S. Senate campaign of Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis releases a new ad touting his working-class roots.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaJa4VFsAfQ

• The Karl Rove-founded American Crossroads launches a new radio ad backing Tillis and linking incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan to President Obama.

• There may be no betting line in Vegas, but the odds look strong for the General Assembly to adjourn this week, freeing Tillis and his colleagues from both parties to campaign freely until the election.

• A statistical election model from The New York Times that uses random outcomes based on polling data for its predictions, finds Hagan losing to Tillis in November, but Democrats retaining Senate control with a 50-50 tie and the benefit of Vice President Joe Biden’s deciding vote.

• Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-10th District, the House’s chief deputy majority whip, contrasts the negotiating styles of presidents Clinton and Obama for the Times of London.