Dispatches from the campaign trail, April 28, 2014

voting literature

• Early voting continues! Find an early voting location here.

• Michael Cobb, a political science professor at N.C. State who analyzes polls and polling, has some issues with a recent New York Times poll showing southern Democratic senators seeking re-election in surprisingly good shape — including North Carolina’s Kay Hagan. A Times blogger adds that Hagan’s numbers may be worse than the poll indicates, as much of her 2008 support came from youthful Obama voters who may not turn out this year.

• A Civitas Institute flash poll of likely Republican voters shows House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, at 39 percent in the GOP Senate primary, barely shy of the 40 percent needed to avoid a July runoff. Greg Brannon received 20 percent, Mark Harris 15 percent, and 19 percent remain undecided. Hagan, however, holds a big lead over all of the Republicans in fundraising.

• A mailer from the Tillis camp takes direct aim at ethical controversies swirling around Brannon.

• A new ad by a Super PAC supporting 6th Congressional District Republican candidate Phil Berger Jr. has led to a libel lawsuit by rival Bruce Von Cannon. Von Cannon also has responded by going after Berger’s record as Rockingham County district attorney.

• Meantime, an internal poll commissioned by Berger shows the Republican at 36 percent, nearly enough to get an outright win May 6 and avoid a runoff.

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