Comments on: 39 inch sea level rise–not a very useful number for policy analysis http://lockerroom.johnlocke.org/2012/06/09/39-inch-sea-level-rise-a-useless-number-for-policy-analysis/ The John Locke Foundation’s Statewide Issues Blog Wed, 22 May 2013 15:01:46 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Bill Price http://lockerroom.johnlocke.org/2012/06/09/39-inch-sea-level-rise-a-useless-number-for-policy-analysis/#comment-326 Bill Price Sun, 10 Jun 2012 18:33:29 +0000 http://lockerroom.johnlocke.org/?p=19298#comment-326 Local, National and International media have been criticizing the NC General Assembly, by joking that a Draft NC Law intends to stop Sea Level from rising or accelerating .
Real funny.
Obviously, no one disputes that Sea Level has been rising since the last Ice Age – very slowly; and certainly, if Sea Level Rise (SLR) is or will accelerate rapidly, we need to know about it, and plan for it whatever the cost; but , in short, it seems that the General Assembly want’s actual proof , instead of using an Ouija Board to predict acceleration of Sea Level Rise.
The issue arose because the CRC, Science Panel (SP) said, SL has been rising 18 inches / 100y , and 1 foot of SLR would inundate up to 2 miles of tidelands, and then, using UN guesstimates, jumped to proposing Planning Policy for 39” SLR by 2100.
However, there are Real world concerns with the SP’s science:
- A visual comparison of post 1850’s US Coast Survey surveys of NC tidelands, with recent surveys, don’t show 4 miles ( 150 y @ 18 inches / 100y ), or even 1 mile of inundation.
- The Tide Gage data they used was shown to be suspect.
- Moreover, the SP’s Literature Search, was a one sided selection of Pro AGW and Pro SLR reports, with no other viewpoints presented.
When asked about this, the SP , scientists, and an educational institution have declined to answer the questions, and refused to participate in an Open Public Forum.
Admittedly, I have received a maelstrom of studies on erosion, but none definitively answer the question. Why not ? If the study has been done, it should be easy enough to post a comparative survey showing inundation for everyone to see.
As no one is omniscient, and being responsible to protect the property rights of all the citizens of NC, it looks like the General Assembly is just saying, we need comprehensive verifiable science, before making important public policy decisions.

Bill Price Pine Knoll Shores

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