The latest TIME explains that a union-led recall effort against Wisconsin’s Republican governor, Scott Walker, could turn out with a much different result than Walker’s critics had expected.

Walker’s survival would be a blow to his union opponents, who sought his removal not just as retribution but also to demonstrate their clout in “an era when labor’s political muscle has atrophied if not disappeared,” says former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich. “That’s the reason I’m such a target,” Walker says. “If they don’t take me out here, it opens the door” for Republicans–and perhaps some Democrats–to follow his example.

Walker has campaigned in a cocoon. He speaks in scripted sound bites, keeps the location of his headquarters secret and shuns rallies that might invite spectacles of dissension. Instead he makes pilgrimages to small businesses, territory both hallowed and safe. On a bright May morning, he was visiting a sheet-metal fabricator on the outskirts of Milwaukee when a factory worker stopped him and placed a hand on his shoulder. “My family and I are praying for you,” he said. Walker looked gratified and a little relieved. If he prevails next week, he may even be vindicated.