The left-of-center Public Policy Polling has a new survey out that finds 58 percent of North Carolina voters support the marriage amendment compared to 38 percent against. The poll also found that, although a majority support the amendment, some voters might not fully understand that it would prohibit both civil unions and state recognition of same-sex marriages.
A curious aspect, though, is the analysis. When PPP polled the amendment in January, it chronicled a steady drop in support, and wasn’t afraid to say so:
North Carolinians are increasingly having doubts about the state’s proposed amendment to ban gay marriage. When PPP first polled on it in October 61% of voters said they would support it. That’s ticked down to 59%, 58%, and now 56% over the course of our last three polls. It’s still leading for passage by a healthy 56/34 margin but the trendlines have to be encouraging for those hoping to defeat it.
Fast forward to today — March 29 — and the new poll results. Support for the amendment has ticked up a modest 2 percentage points, but there is no mention of the lower January number in PPP’s release today.
Granted, the new results are within the poll’s plus-or-minus 2.8 percent margin of error. But the January poll had a plus-or-minus margin of error of 3.5 percent — an even larger gap. Too bad PPP didn’t mention the January results, particularly given the fact that it raised the possibility of a trend before.
Other polling has found support right around the 60 percent mark — WRAL-TV at 58 percent and Civitas at 62 percent.
