Problems raised with Elon’s polling methodology on the marriage amendment

Posted on March 20, 2012 at 11:32 am, by

In conjunction with a pro-marriage amendment group in North Carolina, Public Opinion Strategies has released a brief critique of Elon University’s polling on same-sex marriage. A recent Elon poll concluded that 54 percent of North Carolinians oppose the amendment, even while other polls (from both left-of-center and right-of-center groups) show support around 60 percent.

The POS brief lists two problems with the methodology of the Elon poll. First, it doesn’t filter for registered or likely voters. Second, the survey doesn’t test the actual ballot language (“Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this state”). Instead, it asks whether respondents support “an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would ban same-sex marriage.”

Both factors contribute to producing a result more favorable to opponents of the amendment.

2 comments

  1. If the John Locke Foundation truly believes in liberty, then why does it support this amendment?

    Comment by Pops on March 20, 2012 at 8:48 pm

  2. JLF as an organization doesn’t take an official position on the amendment. Our president, John Hood, has stated publicly that he will vote against the amendment. Opinions on the amendment among staffers vary. That being said, it’s beyond dispute that Elon University’s polling methodology is flawed and tailored to achieve a certain result. Public Policy Polling (left-leaning) and Civitas (right-leaning) more accurately word their poll questions and draw from a sample that more accurately represents who will actually vote on this ballot measure.

    Comment by David N. Bass on March 21, 2012 at 7:14 am

    David N. Bass

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