It’s a question David Freddoso addresses in his latest Washington Examiner article:
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., asserts in [Wednes]day’s L.A. Times that it would be “impossible” for Republicans to take the U.S. Senate in 2012.
That’s not literally true, of course. Democrats currently control 53 seats (yes, that includes Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), and there are certainly more than enough Democratic seats up for re-election that they could lose the Senate. …
… To sum up, Dems could gain anywhere from zero to two Senate seats this year. Republicans could gain anywhere from two to (a highly improbable) twelve. Probable net outcomes range from Dems+2 to Republicans +10.
So yes, contra Schumer, it’s all quite possible, and there’s even a decent chance of it happening. If support for President Obama sinks lower next year, I’d place bets on a net GOP gain of as many as six.
But that’s all conditional, and it’s really hard to say anything unconditionally this early. Recall that early in the 2010 cycle, it looked like Republicans were going to lose, not gain, Senate seats. Kentucky, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida all seemed doomed. Missouri, Louisiana and North Carolina were at least questionable. And then Arlen Specter switched parties.
No one expected the Republican blowout that later developed. So beware.
