As you may have heard, the U.S. unemployment rate held firm at 9.1 percent in September, as nonfarm payrolls went up by 103,000 in seasonally adjusted terms. Some commentators have noted that the 103,000 figure is underwhelming, since 45,000 Verizon workers who were on strike went back to work. That’s a misleading way to look at it, since the seasonally adjusted figure is a guess, rather than an actual survey of employers. That figure, the “not seasonally adjusted” number, shows an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 519,000 from August to September (see the top line of this report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics). So the returning Verizon employees may have made a nice dent in the jobs report, but their jobs made up more like 9 percent of the employment bump rather than 45 percent.

Looking at North Carolina, the BLS collects its data from the states, and two weeks from today, each state will have its figures broken down in a separate report. The figure that has made headlines recently is the number of government employees, which Don Carrington, Terry Stoops, and others have looked at.

Gov. Bev Perdue has warned of 30,000 layoffs resulting from the Republican General Assembly’s budget, 18,000 of them in education. The Department of Public Instruction reported 2,418 fewer K-12 jobs in an August survey of school districts that raised questions about its methodology. (Besides, public school systems are seeking qualified people for 541 open positions. Apply today!) If the DPI report is reliable, there appear to be about 2,000 fewer jobs in K-12 education — including teachers, teacher assistants, support staff, administration, food service, maintenance and facilities, etc. — than there were this time a year ago.

The September BLS report may offer a rough preview of what to expect Oct. 21, when our own Employment Security Commission releases its monthly report. With 9.5 million residents, North Carolina has  3 percent of the nation’s population (now estimated at 312 million people). The number from ESC to highlight will be state and local government employment from September 2010 to September 2011. This figure should capture the loss of any jobs since the budget passed while allowing for the opening of a new school/academic year.

Nationwide, seasonally adjusted jobs in state education (higher ed, including community colleges and university hospitals) ROSE, from 2,387,700 last September to 2,397,600 this year — an increase of 9,900 jobs.  So, in seasonally adjusted terms, North Carolina might show a small INCREASE of about 300 jobs in state education. Recall that the ESC uses seasonally adjusted numbers in all its reports. And its August report showed a gain of 14,400 state and local government jobs that month.

The unadjusted state education numbers are up as well: 2,407,000 this year vs. 2,394,600 last year, a 12,400 gain (or an increase of 372, proportionately).

For local education, where most of the caterwauling has been heard, the federal report shows a loss both in seasonally adjusted and unadjusted terms. From last September to this one, local government educational services recorded a drop nationally of 114,800 jobs (seasonally adjusted) and 150,000 (unadjusted). If North Carolina experiences 3 percent of those losses, we should see a drop of about 3,444 jobs (adjusted) and 4,500 (unadjusted).

To be sure, there could be local variations. Some states may fare significantly better or worse than others. But if I were a betting man, when that September report rolls around, I would wager a substantial number of quatloos that the ESC will report job losses that are nowhere near 18,000, let alone 30K.