An Elon University poll finds finds that more than half surveyed say they are aware of the ethics problems surrounding House Speaker Jim Black. But, the N&R writes, “poll results call into question how much Black’s problems will affect the outcome of this fall’s election.
(The Meck Deck’s Jeff Taylor puts his in two cents’ worth here.)
State Rep. Earl Jones, who’s running against Republican Bill Wright in this year’s election, had an interesting point of view:
During an interview last week, Jones said he hasn’t had any constituents ask him about the speaker’s problems.
“I’ve had more people ask me about (President) Bush,” Jones said.
He said that residents were more frustrated with what they saw as inaction on the federal level by the Republican Congress over issues such as rebuilding the Gulf Coast than they were over stories about politics from Raleigh.
Jones has a point. The Elon University poll certainly has merit, but walk up to an average person on the street and ask him about Jim Black’s problems. Odds are you’ll get a blank stare. The ask them about President Bush, and you’re far more likely to get a strong opinion one way or the other. So it seems to me that people are more passionate about national politics.
So it stands to reason that the um, ethical problems surrounding former Rep. Mark Foley will have a considerable national impact at the polls in November. At least that’s what Democrats and the mainstream media think. On this morning’s Today Show, Tim Russert painted the supposed GOP coverup as a desperate attempt to maintain control of the House. Maybe, maybe not.
But I’m not so sure Foley’s problems will have an impact. How many peopole had ever heard of the guy before this story broke? He’s only one of 433 members of the House, one of only 231 Republicans and only one of 24 representatives from Florida. So the way I see it, sheer numbers dilute the impact of Foley’s problems on the general electorate. To portray them as a Republican problem is a bit of a stretch. Help me out if I’m missing the point.
We’ll find out in November, at exactly the same time we’ll find out if Black’s problems spell problems for state Democrats.
Update: The Locker Room’s Paul Chesser has a slightly different point of view.
