Ariel Zilber reports for the Daily Mail on the latest projections from an American academic with a great track record in predicting presidential election results. The results will please backers of Donald Trump.
An American professor who has devised a system that has helped him correctly predict the last eight US presidential elections says that Donald Trump will emerge victorious on November 8.
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, says that he judges candidates by certain criteria that he calls ‘the 13 keys to the White House.’
The professor told The Washington Post that the key are simple true-false statements built on the premise that presidential elections are a referendum on the performance of the incumbent in the White House and the party that he represents. …
… With the election less than two months away, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is slightly ahead in the latest polls.
Still, Lichtman says that Trump has the upper hand.
‘The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of “true” always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats,’ he says.
‘And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House.’
‘And if six or more of the 13 keys are false – that is, they go against the party in power – they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years.’
The professor says that despite the fact that President Barack Obama will leave office with relatively high popularity numbers, that will not necessarily help Clinton since she lacks his charisma.
Another factor working against Clinton is the fact that the Democrats suffered significant losses during the most recent midterm elections.