Latest McKinsey Report: less than 1/3 enrollees previously uninsured.


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Since the rollout of Obamacare’s exchanges in October 2013, McKinsey and Co. has surveyed a national sample of individuals eligible for an Obamacare qualified health plan within the individual health insurance market.

The slide above illustrates just one snapshot of the study’s main mission: to understand eligible consumer behavior when selecting/purchasing  individual health policies both on and off the ACA exchanges.  McKinsey notes:

Of all February respondents who reported they selected a new 2014 product (insured who switched, previously uninsured who enrolled), 27 percent were previously uninsured, compared with 11 percent in the earlier surveys.     

More and more reports are being released that focus on the impact of Obamacare in the individual health insurance market.  These studies are asking the critical questions that will remain unknown for some time: How many previously uninsured are now gaining coverage?  How many individual policyholders were previously insured but had to switch to an Obamacare compliant policy?  Who has yet to pay their premium? How many individuals will consistently pay their monthly premium over the year?  Results will certainly vary due to different sample sizes and methodologies, but they are still worth observation.

King Puritan thinks he’s banned his way into heaven

And my heaven will be a big heaven
And I will walk through the front door.
— Peter Gabriel, “Big Time”

Former New York City Mayor Michael “Arbitrary and CapriciousBloomberg made a very telling boast recently.

He gave the New York Times, in the course of announcing a $50 million campaign against the National Rifle Association, the following vision of heaven:

Pointing to his work on gun safety, obesity and smoking cessation, [Bloomberg] said with a grin: “I am telling you if there is a God, when I get to heaven I’m not stopping to be interviewed. I am heading straight in. I have earned my place in heaven. It’s not even close.”

As George Mason professor of law F.H. Buckley observed in his book The Morality of Laughter, “The modern Puritan devotes himself to political rather than religious duties.”

So apparently Bloomberg, who isn’t even sure God exists, had been using his public office trying to please his conception of what a god would be “if there is” one, by becoming the greatest Puritan of all through sheer political zeal. Ban sugar, ban salt, ban smokes (even e-cigarettes, since they look like real cigarettes), ban choice after choice after choice that might be used for “sin” so as to … um … skip the interview process for a joyless, priggish conception of heaven?

A heaven that, don’t forget, would ruled by a god who smiles on withholding food donations to homeless and poor people following a natural disaster since, after all, “the city is too busy with disaster recovery to properly assess salt, fat, and fiber levels in the donated food, and therefore can’t ensure that it meets nutritional standards.”

The most important graphic you’ll see today

Later today, the N.C. General Assembly’s Program Evaluation Division will discuss their new report, “Improved Administrative Program Monitoring by the Department of Public Instruction Can Save Over $19 Million Annually.”

The report is noteworthy for those of us in the education policy world, but one figure, in particular, should be of interest to all taxpayers:

(Note: FTE=full-time equivalent employees.)

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The key to escaping poverty is VPC

VPC stands for voluntary private cooperation and in this Freeman piece today, Duke professor Michael Munger makes the case that the key to escaping poverty and making economic progress is exactly that. Where VPC is little obstructed by coercive forces, people make headway against the natural condition of poverty; conversely, where coercive forces get in the way of VPC to a great extent, they can’t.

The US benefited from VPC throughout most of our history, but the relentless growth of government with its mandates and prohibitions and taxes and subsidies increasingly obstructs VPC.

Dispatches from the campaign trail, April 16, 2014

• The latest ad supporting the Senate candidacy of House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, from the Karl Rove-founded American Crossroads emphasizes Tillis’ opposition to Obamacare and incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan’s repeated use of the “lie of the year.”

• Fundraising numbers are trickling in from the first quarter of 2014, and in the 2nd Congressional District race, Keith Crisco ($450,000) outraised Clay Aiken ($233,000) on the Democratic side. Crisco burned through a lot of his money on advertising, leaving him with $38,000 cash on hand, compared with Aiken’s $125,000. Incumbent Republican Rep. Renee Ellmers raised nearly $325,000 and has nearly $450,000 on hand. Figures for her GOP rival Frank Roche were not available.

• In the 7th District, former state Sen. David Rouzer raised nearly $300,000 in the quarter and has $419,000 on hand. His main GOP rival, New Hanover County Commissioner Woody White, sent a press release reporting raising $400,000 in its “first 100 days” and having $100,000 cash on hand. All told, Republican Chris Andrade and Democrats Jonathan Barfield and Walther Martin Jr. reported roughly $50,000 among them.

• A recent poll from Hart Research Associates for CNBC paints a bleak picture for Democrats nationally. The percentage of the “Democratic base” — women, minorities, young people, and low-income voters — who are pessimistic about the economy has risen since President Obama’s re-election; moreover, the percentage of voters who think the minimum wage increase Obama and Washington Democrats are pushing would increase prices and make the economy “less fair” has gone up as well.

Down payment on advocacy coalition’s teacher pay plan? $430 million

Last month, a coalition of seven organizations presented a four-part teacher pay plan to the North Carolina General Assembly’s Educator Effectiveness and Compensation Task Force.  Backers of the plan included the following advocacy organizations:

  • North Carolina Parent Teacher Association
  • Professional Educators of North Carolina
  • North Carolina Association of Educators
  • North Carolina Association of School Administrators
  • North Carolina School Boards Association
  • North Carolina Justice Center – Education and Law Project
  • Public School Forum of North Carolina

The centerpiece of their proposal is to “make teachers whole.” Teachers’ current step on the state salary schedule is the same as it had been since the Democrats froze salaries in 2008. Republicans continued the practice when they assumed power of the legislature in 2011.  These seven groups call on legislators to make up for lost time and advance teachers to the step that they should be on, that is, had the freeze never occurred.

These groups have been reluctant to reveal the estimated cost of implementing their plan. I contacted the N.C. Department of Public Instruction’s Financial and Business Services (FBS) Division to obtain the estimated cost of “making teachers whole.”  They were gracious enough to provide an answer – $430 million.  (Note: In my experience, the folks who work in the FBS Division have always been respectful and responsive to inquiries from the public.  I think other state government agencies can learn a thing or two from them.)

Now it is clear why these seven groups never reveal the cost of their plan to the public.  All told, I estimate that implementing their entire plan, which includes reinstating master’s degree supplements and raising the pay for beginning teachers, would cost the state well over $500 million, i.e., a half a billion dollars, next year alone.  The cost of Republicans’ plan to raise base pay for beginning teachers would alone cost taxpayers an estimated $60 to $70 million a year over the next two years, while reinstating master’s supplements would add millions more.

How do these seven groups propose to pay for their half billion-dollar plan?  Curiously, they haven’t said much about that…

In case you missed him …

Jon Sanders debated Rep. Susi Hamilton, D-New Hanover, on the topic of state film incentives during the latest edition of Time Warner Cable News’ “Capital Tonight.”

How regulation extends the lives of dying businesses

Irwin Stelzer explores for The Weekly Standard the role of regulation in extending the lifespan of businesses — and even entire industries — that are ripe for extinction.

“The dinosaurs surviving the crunch” was how Stephen Sondheim described women living an outdated lifestyle and grimly aware that “everybody dies.” If Sondheim had the slightest interest in the less exalted subject of economics, he would apply that descriptive to a host of companies and industries trying to beat the hooded man with a scythe, aided by their regulators.

The most recent example comes to us courtesy of New Jersey’s automobile dealers—with an assist from their regulators and Governor Chris Christie—who have decided to follow the lead of Texas, Maryland, and Virginia and declare that Tesla, the maker of electric cars, has violated state law by attempting to sell its cars through its own network of stores rather than through franchised dealers. The New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers (NJCAR), feeling threatened by a firm that sells fewer cars in a year than General Motors sells in a day, contends that the regulations do nothing more than bring Tesla into line with other manufacturers to create a level playing field, the sort on which beleaguered competitors prefer to compete so long as the referee/regulator is on their team. For “level playing field” read status quo.

If Tesla is allowed to eliminate the middleman, Ford, General Motors, and other manufacturers will follow suit, whines NJCAR. Yes, the consumer would save money, but if Governor Christie allowed this new and possibly more efficient method of distribution to take hold in New Jersey, he would surely lose lots of dealer votes and their financial support. So Christie, no stranger to issues in the transportation sector, told Tesla it can keep its stores as galleries but not discuss price or take orders.